When prophecy doesn't come true

Tyre and its fate

Tyre was a prosperous trading city located on a small island off the coast of what is now Lebanon. The army of the Babylonian king Nebuchadnezzar II (605–562 BCE) attempted to capture Tyre, but all evidence suggests that the assault was less successful than hoped. Tyre was not destroyed and remained a more or less independent city with its own king.

Ezekiel's prophecies against Tyre take up a lot of space (26:1–28:19), almost as much as those against Egypt (29:1–32:32). They describe the city's downfall, including all its wealth. Two lamentations even portray Tyre's glory as already a thing of the past (27:1–36; 28:11–19).

According to the heading (26:1), Ezekiel received these prophecies about Tyre "in the eleventh year," which is the eleventh year after 597 BCE. In 597, Jerusalem had surrendered to Nebuchadnezzar and his army. Nebuchadnezzar appointed Zedekiah as the new king of Jerusalem and commanded him to obey. However, in the eleventh year (587/586 BCE), the Babylonian army besieged Jerusalem again, as Zedekiah had failed to remain loyal to Nebuchadnezzar. Sometime later, the Babylonians completely destroyed the city and its temple.

The prophecy in Ezekiel 26 assumes that Tyre took malicious pleasure in Jerusalem's agony and hoped to benefit from its downfall (see 26:2). But now the grim message for Tyre is that Nebuchadnezzar's troops will soon deal with that city too. The population will be slaughtered, and the city and its luxurious buildings will never rise again. This message surely resonated well with many Judeans. But things unfolded differently.

It didn’t happen

Around 150 years ago, the renowned Old Testament scholar Abraham Kuenen, a professor in Leiden, already highlighted that the predicted destruction of Tyre by Nebuchadnezzar never occurred. Kuenen was quite keen on finding examples of unfulfilled prophecies. Still, he had a valid point in the case of Ezekiel 26. He pointed to a later passage in the same biblical book which suggests that the siege of Tyre by Nebuchadnezzar’s army ended differently than expected. Below, I place the two passages that Kuenen compared side by side in my own translation. In 26:12, this is said to Tyre regarding Nebuchadnezzar’s army:

They will plunder your wealth and rob your merchandise; they will break down your walls and demolish your fine houses.

The other prophecy is dated to the first day of the twenty-seventh year, that is, in the spring of 571 BCE (29:17). Based on the dates given for the prophecies within the book itself, this is Ezekiel’s final prophecy. It reflects on Nebuchadnezzar’s attack on Tyre (29:18–19):

Son of man, Nebuchadnezzar, the king of Babylon, made his army labour hard against Tyre (…). But neither he nor his army received any reward from Tyre for the effort they made against it. Therefore, this is what the Sovereign LORD says: "I am going to give Egypt to Nebuchadnezzar, the king of Babylon. He will carry off its wealth, plunder its booty, and rob its spoil. It will be the reward for his army."

It is highly likely that this final prophecy is aware of the earlier one in Ezekiel 26 and assumes it did not come to pass. In the Hebrew text, words from the earlier prophecy are repeated: in Tyre the Babylonian army would "plunder" and "rob," but since that did not happen, it would be compensated by "plundering" and "robbing" in Egypt instead. Tyre was indeed besieged, as also stated in chapter 29, probably from the nearby mainland. But despite all the efforts, Tyre could apparently not be captured.

It is a surprising turn of events, especially as both prophecies are presented as messages from God, and God is said to ensure their fulfilment.

Harmonising the two prophecies

There have been attempts to harmonise the two prophecies. Some argue that the prophecy in chapter 26 was fulfilled when Alexander the Great captured Tyre in 332 BCE. I find that approach rather contrived. Ezekiel 26 clearly states that Nebuchadnezzar is the one through whom God will carry out his plan. Ignoring that misses the point of the text.

What do we know?

In addition to the book of Ezekiel, many other sources also suggest that Tyre was not destroyed. In the later biblical book of Zechariah, Tyre is still described as prosperous. The city’s destruction is still seen as something yet to come (9:3–4). It is possible that Tyre, like Jerusalem in 597, lost part of its independence after the siege. However, unlike Jerusalem, which was ultimately destroyed, there is no evidence to suggest that Nebuchadnezzar’s armies ever destroyed Tyre.

Prophecy is not prediction

This prophecy is not the only one in the book of Ezekiel that raises questions. So do the prophecies against Egypt. Ezekiel predicts that Nebuchadnezzar’s army will occupy Egypt (29:19–20; 30:10–12, 23–26). His army probably did invade Egypt at some point, but as far as we know, it was a fairly small-scale attack. There is no indication that the army occupied Egypt or caused large-scale destruction. Likewise, there is no record of a forty-year exile of the Egyptians, nor of their return to their land (29:10–14; 30:23–26).

The same can be said about the promised restoration of Sodom and Samaria (16:53–55, 61). And what about the expectation of a new golden age for a purified Israel after its return from exile (chapters 36–37), the war against King Gog (chapters 38–39), and the building of a new temple as described from chapter 40 onwards?

Ezekiel’s prophecies contain many aspects that are difficult to reconcile with what happened later. His prophecies about Tyre are unique in that the initial prediction gave way to a revised one in light of the facts.

It is striking that the compilers of the biblical book allowed the earlier and later passages about Tyre to stand side by side. They could have left out or altered the older prophecy. The fact that they didn’t suggests they had little or no issue with the tension between the two prophecies. Apparently, they also didn’t feel the need to explain why God had revised his plans.

Essentials and side issues

What does this mean for the interpretation of Ezekiel’s prophecies? What is the nature of his predictions? One could argue that Ezekiel’s prophecies are only human. Given that he got some things wrong, he apparently did not speak on behalf of God.

In my view, that approach does not do justice to the nature of prophecy. You would then be seeing prophecy too much as a form of historiography—in advance, rather than after the facts. I think a different view of prophecy is much more convincing.

God is not depicted as someone with foreknowledge who shares that knowledge through prophets. The reliability of prophecy is not determined by the complete agreement between what is foretold and what eventually happens. Prophecy primarily aims to communicate God’s response to events on earth.

Ezekiel makes it clear that God seeks to shape the course of events when things occur that He cannot tolerate. In the case of Tyre and Egypt, the message is that God is deeply offended by their self-deification (see especially 28:2, 6; 29:3, 9). But pride comes before a fall, and God is the one who will bring about that fall. He employs natural phenomena and, indeed, also Nebuchadnezzar, though Nebuchadnezzar’s role is limited.

Perhaps it was for this reason that the prediction of Tyre’s destruction was passed down unchanged. The focus is on God’s decision to set things right, not on Nebuchadnezzar. Thus, the prophecy retains great value, despite its factual inaccuracy.

What matters is that God demands attention for His perspective. He abruptly puts an end to self-satisfaction, and He creates new possibilities where no one expects them. This is a central theme in the book of Ezekiel, which also appears repeatedly in the prophecies against Tyre and Egypt. With God, the future looks different. No wonder the following phrase is repeated so often in Ezekiel (e.g. 26:6; 29:6, 9, 21):

"Then they will know that I am the LORD!"